Will Derek Tran win reelection for Congressional District 45 in Orange County?

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Congressional District 45 made history in 2024 by electing the first Vietnamese American congressman to represent the area.

It’s making history again this year, with two Vietnamese American candidates running to represent the Orange County region, where Asian Americans make up the largest ethnic demographic, for the first time in U.S. history.

Derek Tran, who won the congressional district two years ago by edging out then-incumbent Michelle Steel (herself a Korean immigrant) by just 653 votes, is trying to fend off challenger Chuong Vo, a retired police officer and former Cerritos mayor.

In the June primary, Tran failed to win the district outright, but he managed to garner more than 53% of the vote, while Vo split the Republican vote with several other candidates.

In the district, which includes Westminster’s Little Saigon, Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees, has highlighted his family’s story throughout his political career. But his cultural roots may not help as much when running against Vo, another child of Vietnamese refugees.

“That was a big part of Derek Tran’s story in his first campaign for this seat,” Dustin Gardiner, senior politics reporter at the San Francisco Standard, said. “That really seemed to help make the difference in a really tight race.”

While the Republican Party has a stronger influence in Orange County than in other parts of Southern California, Proposition 50 may help Tran win reelection.

After Proposition 50 allowed redistricting across the state, Congressional District 45 gained more of Los Angeles County, including parts of Lakewood, as well as northern Orange County. In all, 40% of the district’s 750,000 voters are Asian American, and up to 30% are Latino, according to voting data.

“I think the stories we each bring are our own, and I do think at the end of the day, our community is going to vote on not just that we are Vietnamese American. They are going to look at our experience,” Tran said.

The incumbent may have a point, according to Gardiner, as voters are dissatisfied with what’s happening in Washington, D.C.

“Derek Tran’s story might not be so central this time around, but there are other political factors, like Trump being in office, and the district is bluer than it was before,” Gardiner explained.

The Cook Political Report estimates that Congressional District 45 is “likely” to stay blue.

“(It’s) hard to see Republicans seriously contesting this seat.”

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